Saturday, December 29, 2007

Bhutto's Assassination and Why Huckabee won't get the Nomination

When the Republicans went out to look amongst their very interesting field of candidates they were posed with a very difficult decision. The conservative values base that put George W. Bush into office didn't like the leading contenders both who are (or where) pro-choice non-religious candidates. They looked to good old Senator McCain with his good old experience but he just was either to old or too moderate at the time and Fred Thompson well lets just say Law & Order seemed to be a better gig for him. Frustrated with their lack of choices, values voters gave birth to a new candidate one that stood for them and with them former Iowa governor, Mike Huckabee.

His quick rise came as people soon realized Rudy couldn't win in Iowa and New Hampshire and well they didn't want Romney to steal the show. Huckabees publicity grew as value voters continued to push him along up the chain and in many polls is seen as a top contender in Iowa but even with all that loss of weight and his executive experience Huckabee lacked an important understanding, Foreign Policy. On several occaisions Huckabee was stumped by the press on recent foreign policy developments which he had no briefing or understanding for. Not only did Mr. Huckabee not have an understanding of most any foreign policy he also rarely knew about latest developments where he would respond to reporters with a puzzled look and a lack of understanding.

Now going down the list of top tier candidates although Giuliani has no street credentials on foreign policy he does typically know whats going on and bottom line knows how to attach it to his policies; national security. Romney is quite well versed on foreign policy compared to most republican candidates and has released many policy papers on important international issues as well. McCain having served time in Vietnam and long time senator is probably the most well versed on foreign policy with good ideas for implementation.

With the tragic assassination of Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, this has dominated the news cycle meaning if a candidate doesn't have anything good to say regarding this issue it probably won't be covered. With the Pakistani elections right dab in the middle of early primary/caucas season this will be a huge time share on the network news cast with presidential politics meaning foreign policy becomes the trump card.

With polls still showing Huckabee in the lead, a number of news outlets are starting to scrutizinize candidates foreign policy and once these come under the microscope there is a good chance that the Huckabee campaign will come to a collapse. Most campaign officials are even admiting a lack of understanding on the issue.

So what does this all mean for Mike Huckabee and the Republican nomination? Although recently Mr. Huckabee has had a huge rise to almost the top Huckabee will not be able to gather the support for the Republican nomination. He may win Iowa at best and maybe a smooth talker but not understanding an international political situation in an ally and nuclear power in the middle of the Iraq and terrorism conflicts is something that just won't be overlooked.


Anonymous said...

you mean bhutto's assassination DOESN'T mean that we need a fence on the border with mexico??

Mr. Mehta said...

No a fence is a terrible idea. The core idea of America is to be welcoming towards people from all countries, cultures and races. A fence or wall as a symbol is something that destroys what little image we have in the country and is a short term solution to an important issue that faces our nation.

Chirag said...

Any Indian supporting the Republican Party is equal to an Indian supporting the British Raj.