Common Ground - Raj Verma

What is Popular Today?

You saw it yesterday, and you will probably read another one today. Media is littered with public opinion polls purportedly representing a national perspective. With the Presidential elections one year away and mounting scrutiny facing each candidate, the media is aggressively employing their resources to gauge public opinion and force candidates to respond to abstract hypothetical questions and esoteric polls. As in a once-popular television game show, ‘Family Feud’, where contestants are pitted against each other with the intent of determining the most popular answer to questions posed on a survey, American media tends to compel candidates to answer questions based on numerous and differing ‘public opinion polls’. However, this poses a serious leadership dilemma for the next President of the United States and our nation’s leaders. In fact, this dilemma has haunted modern American presidents-that is- how to balance the demands of popular opinion and accurately extract the will of the people (originally assigned as the role of Congress) while attempting to achieve what is in the best interest of the entire country given the social, economic, political and moral context, no matter what public opinion offers at any given point in time. The overuse and overemphasis of public opinion polls, especially in a media-saturated culture, has been and continues to undermine effective democracy because the nation’s leaders have emerged as mere panderers.

Winston Churchill once stated, “Nothing is more dangerous than to live in the temperamental atmosphere of a Gallup poll-always feeling one’s pulse and taking one’s temperature.” Ironically, those candidates and current President who completely ignore or are impervious to polls are not likely to succeed, as they will be labeled ‘out of touch’ with the general public. Granted, the importance of keeping one’s eyes and ears close to the ground should not be underestimated. But there are serious and important policy issues that require effective leadership to transcend popular sentiment. For example, a recent Gallup poll, among several deployed every month, indicated that most Americans believe that Iraq and national security are the two most pressing issues facing the nation. Interestingly, immigration and the environment fell at the bottom of the list. It naturally follows then, that if a leader is to pander to public opinion, then the administration should place extra emphasis on addressing each issue in hierarchical order. Yet, we know that immigration, the environment and national security are inexplicably intertwined. Failed immigration policy and dependence on foreign oil were two of many compelling causes for this nation’s worst national security disaster in 2001. Relying on public opinion polls to measure popular political sentiment has inherent defects, such as small sample sizes, confusing questions, and other methodological errors. Even if the polls were completely accurate, heavy reliance on them derogates from the purpose of Congress to divine the will of the people. In turn, it is the role of the public to employ grassroots lobbying and participate in public debate to signal to Congress their desires. Overuse of polls extinguishes any value of discussion and Congressional receptiveness to public will.

The point is that the next American president and future leaders to come, must possess the courage, fortitude, and initiative to look beyond public opinion polls and read what lies ahead—even if the leader’s reading of politics contradicts public opinion, at times. It requires the President to evaluate his/her success not based on a man being the measure of all things (otherwise known a as humanism), but rather on values, mores, and moral code. He or she must elevate particular issues and build consensus on them, no matter what public opinion serves at any given time. Harry Truman once stated “I wonder how Moses would have gone if he had taken a poll in Egypt.” Similarly, strong, effective, and meaningful leadership will be able to withstand unfavorable popular opinion and execute what is in the best interest of the nation—even when the barometer indicates a paltry zero degrees.

Raj Verma, JD/MPA
Blog Contributor

Raj Verma is the President of the Future Leaders Council for USINPAC. He currently resides in Washington DC.

Brownback Drops Out, Huckabee to Gain?

Several news sources are reporting that Senator Brownback of Kansas is dropping his bid for the Whitehouse. This is the the second recent GOP candidate to drop, the first being Former Health & Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson.

The race is really starting to enter prime time as the money end of the game is really starting to take over. By Friday Senator Brownback isn't expected to have more than $95,000 cash on hand and although only plays 2% of the polls, really drummed up a great deal of the support with the Evangelical Christians. This foundation of the republican party has yet to find a solid candidate that aligns with their views and identity and it seems that Mike Huckabee is picking up from the demographic.

Huckabee has all to gain from Brownback dropping out in both votes and financial. He has consistently been second to Romney in Iowa polls, whose success is credited to the over 10,000 ad spots his campaign has purchased to raise awareness and profile for Mitt Romney. Huckabee appeals to the conservative voters and as governor of Arkansas can claim to have the executive experience needed to run the country.

Can Huckabee gain from this? What do you think?

-Varun

Bobby Jindal – for President?

While the 2008 presidential election is just a few months away from primary season, the race for Louisiana’s governorship is coming to a close with Indian-American Bobby Jindal leading. If Jindal can pull off a 50% victory this Saturday, he’ll be planning his move to the Governor’s Mansion in Baton Rouge a little earlier than expected. If he fails to get 50%, the race will result in a runoff on November 17^th. Either way, Jindal is a clear favorite with the most recent poll giving him 50% of the vote and his closest rivals 9%.

Jindal has been a bright star in this rather low point of a year for the GOP. In some ways his political career is reminiscent of Barack Obama. Some conservative commentators have labeled him the Obama with actual experience. Could Jindal run for president? Well for one he was born in the US and two, he certainly has the resume having been a Rhodes Scholar, President of the University of Louisiana system, Assistant Secretary for Health and Human Services, and most recently serving as a Congressman. All this accomplished by the age of 36.

Being elected governor would pay off significantly for a White House bid. There has been a trend of governors (southern state governor anyone?) winning the national election, the last person who was a Senator prior to President was JFK. Being a minority Republican candidate could also help Jindal gather more media attention and expand the party’s voter base.

Politics and race aside, the one issue that could make a presidential run successful for him is healthcare. With the first Baby Boomer applying for Social Security yesterday, 4 to 8 years from now healthcare for aging and retiring Americans will be a bigger issue than ever and Jindal who has spent much of his career focusing on public health issues will have a significant influence on policy. Perfect timing for a healthcare savvy governor looking for the next step in his career.

Anay Shah

Democratic Candidates Face off in NH

In case you missed the Democratic debate, check out this MSNBC article: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21000458/

The candidates debated a number of things including Social Security, Iraq, and a national ban on smoking in public places. One of the most interesting points of the debates was when moderator Tim Russert asked if any candidate would ever approve torturing a suspected terrorist to prevent the detonation of a nuclear bomb with only 3 days to spare. After Hillary said no, Russert said former President Bill Clinton once suggested it might be appropriate. "Well, he's not standing here right now,” Hillary replied.

With less than 5 months before the first primary the candidates are trying to differentiate themselves. Tell us who you think won the debate by voting in our Poll on the right hand column!